“俄罗斯黑客门”最新波折的五大看点

We are long past the point where the story of Donald Trump became stranger and more lurid than a Hollywood movie. Tuesday brought a fresh and astonishing twist: the news that the US intelligence agencies have briefed both the president and the president-elect on a series of damaging allegations made against Mr Trump. The document containing the allegations has been published, so they are now common knowledge. Here are five points to bear in mind, when considering this news.唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的故事比好莱坞电影的情节更为奇葩、更为耸人听闻——这一点早就不是新闻。周二经常出现了一个新鲜和令人惊恐的情节巨变：有报导称之为，美国情报机构向总统和被选为总统两人都通报了一连串有利于特朗普的指控。涉及文件包括的明确指控早已公开发表，因此它们现在早已人尽皆知。

以下是消化这条消息时有一点忘记的五个要点。1. The two most damaging allegations are that there was illicit communication between the Trump campaign and the Russian government and that the Russians have compromising material on bizarre sexual behaviour by Mr Trump. These allegations have been circulating among many news organisations (including the Financial Times) for weeks. But, until now, nobody had yet published them because they are unproven.1.其中两个指控最不具破坏性：一是特朗普竞选团队曾与俄罗斯政府展开见不得人的交流，二是俄方掌控着有关特朗普怪异性行为的污点材料。这些指控在许多新闻的组织（还包括英国《金融时报》）中流传了好几周。但此前没一家媒体公开发表，因为它们予以证实。

2. These allegations are being taken seriously. Mr Trump has already dismissed the story as fake news and a political witch-hunt. The fact that no reputable news organisation has been able to corroborate them also damages the credibility of the charges. On the other hand, as an excellent Lawfare blog observes: “The president and president-elect do not get briefed on material that the intelligence community does not believe to be at least of some credibility.” But it should also be noted that some of the charges already seem to be falling apart. Mr Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, who is alleged to have met Russian operatives in Prague, has tweeted that he has never been to Prague in his life.2.这些指控于是以获得认真对待。特朗普早已几乎坚称这条消息，称之为其为假消息和政治打压。

没一家声誉较好的新闻机构需要证实这些指控，这一事实伤害了涉及指控的可信度。另一方面，正如法律网站Lawfare上一篇独到的博客文章所认为的：“总统和被选为总统会获得情报界不坚信最少有一些可信度的材料的摘要。”但也应当认为，其中一些指控或许早已被证明站不住脚。

被所指曾在布拉格与俄罗斯特工见面的特朗普的律师迈克尔?科恩(Michael Cohen)在Twitter上写到，他根本没去过布拉格。3. The broader context is important. One reason why these allegations are potentially so damaging is that they fit into a broader narrative. For months, political analysts have been scratching their heads about why Mr Trump is so pro-Russian. More recently, there has been speculation about why the president-elect was so dismissive of allegations of Russian hacking during the election. The most obvious explanation is simply that Mr Trump resents anything that casts doubt on the legitimacy of his election. However, there have also long been theories that Russian intelligence had some damaging Kompromat (compromising material) on Mr Trump.3.整体背景是最重要的。这些指控具备潜在极大破坏力的一个原因是，它们与一个整体的描述吻合。

数月来，政治分析人士仍然对特朗普为何如此内亲俄罗斯深感匪夷所思。最近，对于被选为总统为何对有关议会选举期间俄罗斯发动黑客攻击的指控如此不屑一顾，有人做出了猜测。

最显而易见的说明是，特朗普憎恨任何批评他被选为合法性的众说纷纭。然而，长期以来仍然有理论指出，俄罗斯情报机构掌控着特朗普的污点材料(Kompromat)。4. The immediate impact is likely to be limited. Some of Mr Trump’s opponents hope that these stories are so explosive that they could yet prevent Mr Trump becoming president. This is highly unlikely. The inauguration takes place on January 20. Mr Trump has comprehensively denied the allegations. However, the president-elect’s press conference on Wednesday should be quite a spectacle. There is a certain irony to the fact that Mr Trump, who spent many months peddling a false allegation that President Barack Obama was not born in the US, should now be complaining about “fake news”.4.直接影响很有可能是受限的。

特朗普的一些反对者期望这些故事具备如此极大的爆炸力，以至于它们可以制止特朗普沦为总统。这是近于不有可能的。

就职典礼将于1月20日举办。特朗普已全面坚称了这些指控。

然而，被选为总统周三举办的记者会非常有看头。有一个事实具备一定嘲讽意味：曾多次花上了很多个月来贩卖有关巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统不是在美国出生于这一欺诈指控的特朗普，现在责怪起“假消息”来。5. The long-term impact could be damaging. It is possible that, in the coming days, these allegations will be comprehensively debunked. In that case, they will not hurt Mr Trump. They could even help by casting doubt on all the many other allegations that are certain to be hurled at him during his presidency. However, if Congress and the intelligence agencies insist on digging further into these stories and into the general issue of Russian hacking, the Trump White House will be weakened.5.长年影响有可能是破坏性的。在接下来的几天里，这些指控有可能获得全面反驳。

在那种情况下，它们会损害特朗普。它们甚至有可能协助他，因为它们将使他兼任总统期间认同不会面临的其它很多指控显得不那么可靠。然而，如果国会和情报机构坚决更进一步查出这些故事，查出俄罗斯对美发动黑客攻击的整个问题，特朗普接掌的白宫将被巩固。The worst case would be that Mr Trump is dogged by a long-running investigation. It is worth remembering that the Watergate scandal, which originated in events during an election, took two years before it eventually forced President Nixon’s resignation. The sexual allegations against Mr Trump — although vigorously denied — are also damaging to the new president’s dignity. It is not good to take the oath of office against a background of sniggering.最差劲的情况是特朗普被旷日持久的调查所后遗症。

有一点忘记的是，当年的水门事件丑闻源于议会选举期间再次发生的事情，但在两年后才最后被迫尼克松总统请辞。针对特朗普的性指控——尽管已被反感坚称——还有损新的总统的精神。在窃笑的人群面前宣誓就职不是件好事。

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